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The Demographic Dividend

29 Jul 2026 5 min read
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My team and I recently embarked on an exciting new project.

We are working with close to 100 self-employed individuals spread through four cohorts across South Africa. These starry-eyed peeps are youngsters who have applied to a youth accelerator that we’re running in collaboration with Harambee.

Every participant has indicated they want to move from unemployed to self-employed.

This is some of the most important work Heavy Chef will ever do.

The youth will inherit the earth.

In South Africa, there are a lot of youthful folks to share in this inheritance.

A young population should, in theory, mean a prosperous population. Economists call this a “demographic dividend”.

In contrast, countries like Germany and Japan are facing a demographic time bomb. In nations where reproduction rates have slowed significantly, their ageing populace is exiting the workforce and placing enormous strain on social resources.

However, it’s not as simple as “more reproduction = more production”.

If we cannot contain the growing inequality in the new generation, we will be facing a time bomb of our own.

South Africa defines its youth as “individuals aged 15 to 34 years”. This group totals approximately 21 million people (growing from 14.7 million in 1996), making up about 33.1% of our total national population.

It gets gnarly when we dig into the details.

According to StatsSA, the official youth unemployment rate for those aged 15–34 stands at 45.8%.

45.9% of young people aged 15–34 are not in education, employment, or training.

Analysing this by population group reveals stark disparities, particularly in the youngest age bracket (15–24 years) where the national average is 60.9%.

Across the broader 15–34 youth demographic, the rate sits stubbornly around 53% to 57% depending on the quarter and gender.

These are tough, tough, tough challenges to overcome.

At the same time, there are some green shoots emerging out of this muddy ground.

Last week, Heavy Chef hosted Bulelani Balabala (founder of TEA) and Matt Putman (founder of iKhokha) on stage in Durban in front of a room packed with business owners.

Both Bulelani and Matt have a clear lens on the challenges faced by youth.

Both shared stories of entrepreneurs starting and scaling extraordinary businesses.

In Matt’s words, “These days, all you need is an ID document and a phone and you can start trading.”

This is important - and signals a clear shift ahead. We’re expecting growth towards 8 out of 10 young people having their own small business by 2030 (crazy stuff; more on that in upcoming mailers).

The evolution to entrepreneurship is not just a necessary leap. It’s a cultural phenomenon. The hustle is real amongst the young ‘uns.

In June 2025 Gerrie Fourie, then CEO of Capitec, publicly challenged the veracity of StatsSA’s dire statistics.

Fourie contends that the unemployment rate is closer to 10%-15% (as opposed to the “official” rate at 30-35%).

He should know. Capitec has over 26 million clients, with many of them now being used for trading. Fourie contends that many of the unemployed are running side-hustles and main hustles below CIPC’s radar.

I attended our first Harambee x Heavy Chef youth gathering two weeks ago in Khayelitsha with my colleagues Prince and Leonard.

Leonard, the facilitator of the group, asked the attendees what they want to get from the Heavy Chef programme.

Every single one stated (obvz), “I want to make money.”

Then, shortly afterwards, they all said: “I want to make a difference.”

There was a remarkable authenticity to their energy and enthusiasm.

They want to change their world for the better.

I believe them.

It will be a tough gig, but these crazy, awesome youngsters will get there in the end.

Perhaps it is us that shall inherit from them?

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